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How Well Does The CPI-W Measure The Average Consumer’s Inflation?By ssapotluck
The Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statics (BLS) said in its April CPI-W report that, “Gasoline and food prices continued to rise and together accounted for almost three quarters of the seasonally adjusted all items increase in March. The gasoline index posted its ninth consecutive increase and has now risen 14.4 percent over the last three months.” This seems true enough, but their monthly reports don’t really seem to match our perception that inflation has occurred at a considerably greater rate than what they say. I charted the BLS’s CPI-W amounts for the period from September 2009 through March 2011. It shows inflation increasing at a fairly steady rate of about 0.1% per month from September 2009 until November 2010 (a total of about 1.62% in 14 months.) From November 2010 until March 2011, the rate of inflation sharply increased to the rate of about 0.6% per month (a total of 2.45% in 4 months.) This sharp increase is probably linked more to the price of gasoline, which has been increasing rapidly in cost for about 6 months. The increase in the price of gasoline and other fuels is caused by an increase in the cost of oil, which is being manipulated by speculators. According to oil producers, there is a glut of oil in the market, and by rights prices should be going down due to oversupply. The gray lines help show the sharp change in the rate of increase in the CPI-W. Overall, according to the BLS, the increase from September 2009 through March 2011 has been about 4.1%, which averages out to about 0.23% per month.
To me, this seems low, based just on grocery shopping. It has been my perception that the cost of groceries (food and sundry items) has been steadily increasing since about the end of 2009. My gut feeling was that the increase was about 20%, based on the amount I paid each shopping. I thought the BLS was under-reporting inflation in food costs, and by implication, other costs as well. After seeing the latest CPI-W report, I thought I’d put my perception to a little test. I have been shopping at the same supermarket for a little over a year. I located a receipt from March 2010 and compared the prices they charged then to prices they charge for the same items now. This is anecdotal, but, I think, very interesting.
So why would the BLS under-report inflation? It has been the Federal Reserve’s policy for some time to inject more dollars into the economy. This money goes to the banks and unfortunately stops there. It doesn’t really get into the economy. In addition, there is no value behind these dollars; they are borrowed. This is supposed to get the economy up and running by increasing the money supply. It also is supposed to make foreign goods more expensive to import and domestic goods cheaper to export, which would help our trade deficit. It isn’t really working on either account, and it is inflationary. This is essentially what the Weimar Republic did in the early 1920s to try and get Germany’s economy going after the debacle of World War I and the immense debt imposed on them by the Versailles Treaty. They printed baseless money. When I was in high school, a friend had a 100,000,000 Reichmark note, which at the time it was printed was already nearly worthless. The Obama administration is in a position where they really don’t want to acknowledge the inflation their fiscal actions are causing. But it is the only way they can get extra money into the economy because there is no way that Congress will permit another stimulus, which is the best way to fight a recession, because it bypasses the banks and gets money directly to the American people. Posted January 16, 2012http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.htmlThe latest COLA is 3.6 percent for Social Security benefits and SSI payments. Social Security benefits will increase by 3.6 percent beginning with the December 2011 benefits, which are payable in January 2012. Federal SSI payment levels will also increase by 3.6 percent effective for payments made for January 2012. Because the normal SSI payment date is the first of the month and January 1 is a holiday, the SSI payments for January are always made at the end of the previous December.Social Security & Medicare changes 2012 a boost to beneficiariesVol. 7 Issue 44
01/16/2012
By Jacques Chambers, Hollywood, California
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Social Security and Medicare recipients will receive larger benefit payments in 2012. Congress passed statutes some years back that automatically provided for changes in costs and benefits to Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, affecting everything from Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA) to setting the premiums and co-payment levels for the various parts of Medicare.
The law automatically ties these changes to increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which effectively takes political issues out of the rate setting process. Because inflation has been so low over the past several years, there has been no increase in benefits and few changes elsewhere. This year, however, is different. As most of you have probably heard, people receiving Social Security benefits, whether it is retirement, disability, survivors, or dependents, are receiving a 3.6% increase in their benefits. The change is effective December 1 so that the changes will be first seen in the payments sent out in January 2012. This will result in a monthly increase of $43 for the average retired worker, $39 for the average disability beneficiary, and $64 for the average disabled worker with a spouse and one or more children. The adjustment will affect more than benefits. For example: the maximum earnings subject to FICA payroll taxes increases from $106,800 to $110,100; the amount of earnings needed to earn one Social Security credit (formerly called quarters) goes from $1,120 to $1,130; Substantial Gainful Activity (the amount a person on disability can earn without affecting his or her benefits) goes from $1,000 to $1,010 per year. Other changes can be found at www.ssa.gov . Medicare Changes for 2012 In addition to changes caused by the 3.6% inflation adjustment, the implementation of provisions of the 2010 Affordable Care Act are affecting Medicare in 2012 as well.
First, the Medicare Advantage Change period formerly from January 1 through March 31 is now The Medicare Advantage Disenrollment Period. It only lasts from January 1 through February 14, and only permits persons in a Medicare Advantage Plan to switch to original fee-for-service Medicare, and add Part D coverage if they had drug coverage prior. The Medicare premiums, deductibles, and many co-pays will change January 1, 2012 as well. Part A – Hospital Coverage Most Medicare beneficiaries paid into the Medicare system while working enough to receive Part A coverage without having to pay any premium. Others, however, who haven’t worked the full 40 quarters/credits necessary for no premium, must pay all or a portion of the Part A premium. Persons who earned at least 30 quarters/credits will pay $248, and for those with less the Part A premium will be $451 per month.
Part B – Medical Coverage The monthly premium for Part B coverage varies according to the beneficiary’s income. Also, those beneficiaries whose coverage started within the past few years may see their premiums reduce. The rate you pay will be based on your modified adjusted gross income as reported on your IRS tax return from 2 years ago:
The benefits under Part B will be:
*NOTE: Remember that if your physician accepts “Medicare Assignment” you are only liable for 20% of the Medicare-approved Amount regardless of what the doctor normally charges or bills you. NOTE:All Medicare Advantage Plans must cover the services listed above. Costs vary by plan and may be either higher or lower than those noted above. Review the Evidence of Coverage from your plan. Part D – Prescription Medications For the first time, persons with higher incomes will pay higher premiums for Part D plans as they do for Part B. This may be confusing for persons who pay directly without having the premium taken out of their Social Security payments. This is because the surcharge over and above the plan’s “normal” premium, must make two payments each month, the normal premium to the insurance company and the surcharged cost to Social Security.
Everyone who is covered under a stand-alone drug plan with original or fee-for-service Medicare should review their drug plan by comparing the drug plans based on the medications they are currently taking at www.medicare.gov to make sure the plan they are on is still the best program for them. ![]() Jacques Chambers, Benefits Consultant and Counselor. operates helpwithbenefits.com.
How is a COLA calculated? A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA. COLA Computation
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| CPI-W for— | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2011 | |
| July | 216.304 | 222.686 |
| August | 215.247 | 223.326 |
| September | 214.935 | 223.688 |
| Third quarter total | 646.486 | 669.700 |
| Average (rounded to the nearest 0.001) | 215.495 | 223.233 |
BSC 2012 Congressional Meetings
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: NOVEMBER 2011 DIRECTOR’S REPORT
On October 28, 2011, Executive Director Edwin Pierson of the Benefit Security Coalition traveled to Capitol Hill and delivered 28,253 petitions to Congressman Mac Thornberry of Texas.
Congressman Thornberry’s staff expressed their appreciation for the vital policy support generated by Benefit Security Coalition members and showed genuine concern about how the current economic situation is affecting Senior Citizens and the need for serious COLA reform.
As Executive Director of the Benefit Security Coalition, Mr. Pierson wishes to thank each and every member for their petitions and for the financial support they have provided over the last 6 months. Furthermore, he stated that without the dedication and generosity of Benefit Security Coalition supporters, our highly successful 2011 Congressional Legislative Initiative to protect the COLA Senior Citizens have earned would not have been possible.
About 75% of Social Security recipients won’t see COLA hike
10/24/11
The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will increase 3.6% for Social Security beneficiaries in 2012, affecting more than 60 million consumers, although an insurance trade group says most will not see the full COLA.
The 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits that about 55 million Social Security beneficiaries receive in January 2012, the Bureau of Statistics announced Oct. 19. Increased payments to more than 8 million SSI beneficiaries will begin Dec. 30, 2011.
But a “majority” of Social Security recipients will not see the increase because of the expected increase in Medicare Part B premiums, which are deducted from recipients’ Social Security payments, according to the Insured Retirement Institute (IRI). About 75% of Social Security recipients, who were exempted from Part B premium increases in 2010 and 2011 when there was no COLA, will not receive the 2012 COLA.
The “compromised” increase jeopardizes the financial security of 84% of baby boomers who plan to rely on Social Security in retirement, and underscores the instability of the benefit program, according to IRI.
“As an historic number of Americans approach retirement, we are seeing growing uncertainty in sources of retirement income that have traditionally been considered a ‘guarantee’ such as Social Security and pensions,” said Cathy Weatherford, president and CEO of IRI, in a statement. “This has left many Boomers concerned about retirement.It is evident that Americans can no longer rely solely on Social Security and pensions to provide guaranteed income through retirement. It is vitally important for all Americans to create holistic retirement plans that will truly guarantee retirement income.”
The Bureau of Statistics said other changes that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $110,100 from $106,800. Of the estimated 161 million workers who will pay Social Security taxes in 2012, about 10 million will pay higher taxes as a result of the increase in the taxable maximum, according to the Bureau of Statistics.
http://ifawebnews.com/2011/10/24/about-75-of-social-security-recipients-wont-see-cola-hike/
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information for 2012
October 24, 2011
Monthly Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 60 million Americans will increase 3.6 percent in 2012.
The 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits that nearly 55 million Social Security beneficiaries receive in January 2012. Increased payments to more than 8 million SSI beneficiaries will begin on December 30, 2011.
Gallup Poll: Perry’s Social Security Position Hurts
election.
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/gallup-poll-perry-social/2011/09/16/id/411278
Social Security Is In Danger
Social security is in danger. The recently approved deficit reduction plan includes the establishment of a Congressional super committee that is supposed to propose ways to achieve $1.2-1.5 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years. Everything is on the table, including Social Security. It must complete its work by November 23, 2011.
While the committee could decide to spare Social Security, the odds are great that its final proposal will include significant benefit cuts. Most Republicans have long sought to dismantle the program and President Obama is willing to accept a reduction in Social Security benefits for the sake of deficit reduction. Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the federal government’s credit rating only adds to the pressure. The rating agency explained its decision as follows:
We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process.
Significantly, there has been little media discussion of the importance of Social Security to those over 65. According to the Economic Policy Institute:
The average annual Social Security retirement benefit in 2009 was $13,406.40, slightly above the $10,289 federal poverty line for individuals age 65 and older, but less than the minimum wage. While modest in size, Social Security benefits comprise a substantial share of household income for most elderly recipients.
The chart below shows that the poorest 40% of households with a head 65 years or older rely on social security for more than 80% of their income. Even the middle 20% depend on social security for more than 60% of their income. In sum, cutting social security benefits will hit hard at the great majority of seniors.
If the super committee does decide to go after social security, it will likely do so by proposing that social security benefits be adjusted using a new measure of inflation. Right now benefits are adjusted using the CPI-W, which measures the change in prices of goods and services commonly consumed by urban wage earners and clerical workers. The new measure is called the Chained Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers.
This all sounds very technical, but the basic idea is simple. The CPI-W measures the increase in the cost of a relatively fixed bundle of goods and services. The Chained Consumer Price Index assumes that consumers continually adjust their purchases, giving up those goods and services that are expensive in favor of cheaper substitutes. The chained index would produce a lower rate of inflation because the goods and services whose prices are rising the fastest would be dropped from the index or given lower weight. The result would be a smaller annual cost of living adjustment for those receiving Social Security, thereby cutting Social Security outlays.
Those who support using a chained index argue that it is a more accurate measure of inflation than the CPI-W. In reality, it just masks the fact that people are unable to buy the goods and services they once enjoyed. If we are really concerned about accuracy, we could use the CPI-E, which measures the change in prices of those goods and services commonly consumed by seniors. The CPI-E has risen much faster than the CPI-W, demonstrating that current cost of living adjustments are actually too low, not too high.
The following chart should leave no doubt as to what is at stake in this “technical” adjustment. A medium earner retiring this year at age 65 would receive $15,132. The retiree’s real (inflation adjusted) earnings would remain constant over time assuming that Social Security benefits were adjusted using the existing CPI-W. If benefits were adjusted using the proposed Chained CPI, the retiree’s real earnings would steadily decline, falling to $13,740 at age 95. By comparison, benefits would grow to $16,131 if the CPI-E were used.
Of course, this is all about deficit reduction, and the experts have calculated that adopting the Chained CPI would lower federal spending by some $300 billion over the next ten years.
Perhaps the biggest outrage is that Social Security shouldn’t even be part of the deficit reduction discussion. It is a self-financing system, one with a large surplus. According to many analysts, the system will not have sufficient funds to meet its obligations in 2037. Economists can’t predict what will happen with any confidence over the next year and yet we are close to weakening a vital social program because we need deficit reduction now and/or Social Security might have trouble 25 years in the future.
In fact, the claim that the system might have trouble in 2037 is based on very extreme and unlikely assumptions about future economic activity. Even if we accept these extreme assumptions we don’t have much of a crisis. Currently, Social Security taxes are paid on all labor income up to $106,800. Earnings above that amount are not taxed. Why is this important? As the Wall Street Journal explained in a recent article titled “Pay of Top Earners Erodes Social Security”:
Social Security Administration actuaries estimate removing the earnings ceiling could eliminate the trust fund’s deficit altogether for the next 75 years, or nearly eliminate it if credit toward benefits was provided for the additional taxable earnings.
In sum, those who want to shrink/privatize Social Security are trying to take advantage of our alleged debt crisis. Of course, they will call what they are doing a technical fix to save both the economy and Social Security. Hopefully no one will believe them.
Written by Martin Hart-Landsberg
August 8th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Don’t Play Politics With My Benefits: The Debt Ceiling, Social Security Benefits and the Danger of political games
By Anthony Reeves
Jul 26, 2011 Today, I received a phone call from one of my clients who was asking how long her case would take to go to a hearing. I get these calls all the time so this call wasn’t anything out of the norm. However, on this day, her concern wasn’t over getting thrown out of her home, frustration with excessive delays, or the need for money. In her words, she was “concerned that the government may stop spending money on August 3 for Social Security benefits.” Her words really caught me off guard. I’ve always believed that Social Security is such an integral part of the fabric and landscape of the American socioeconomic fabric that few politicians would dare take any steps toward jeopardizing it. However, after thinking for a second, I started to look at this situation differently. A lot of things are occurring now that I would not have anticipated. I would never have anticipated the emergence of the Tea Party movement. I would never have anticipated seeing an African-American President in my lifetime (even though, I’m glad I did). I would never have anticipated seeing politicians with no political experience and known questionable backgrounds voted into office. So with that backdrop, I came to my question: “Is the Debt Ceiling issue real or are politicians playing politics with Social Security Disability benefits?” As the August 2, 2011 Debt Ceiling deadline looms, the President said these words that many Americans who are receiving Social Security Disability benefits are terrified to hear: “I cannot guarantee that those checks go out on August 3rd if we haven’t resolved this issue…….this is not just a matter of Social Security checks. These are veterans’ checks, these are folks on disability and their checks. There are about 70 million checks that go out.” -Obama on CBS Evening News. For the 6.4 million survivors, 8 million disabled workers, and 35 million retired workers who receive the billions of dollars in Social Security benefits, this statement from the President is not only shocking but also horrifying. The fears are real but facts are an acceptable source to combat any misunderstandings or misgivings. In April 2008, the Congressional Research Service prepared a Report for Congress on the debt limit. In this report, a few things truly stand out: 1.While the debt limit has never caused the federal government to default on its obligations, it has at times caused great inconvenience and has added uncertainty to Treasury operations. 2.The debt limit has been raised in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. 3.Unless federal policies change, Congress would repeatedly face demands to raise the debt limit to accommodate the growing federal debt in order to provide the government with the means to meet its financial obligations. So, in the grander scheme of things, the debt limit has been increased regularly with little incident or fanfare. In other words, if Congress and the White House follow historical trends, an agreement will be reached, the debt limit will be raised, and benefits will be distributed uninterrupted. So what makes this debt limit so special?? Why are political blows being thrown like a Mixed Martial Arts fight in the Octagon?? The simple fact is nothing. There is absolutely nothing special about this debt ceiling limit. Even more so, the discussions are focused on the same age-oldcomplaints: spending cuts and taxes. The President wants spending cuts and tax increases. The Republicans don’t want any new revenue (i.e. no new taxes). The Democrats don’t want any proposed cuts to Medicare and Social Security. So, in the end, the truth is the debt ceiling has everything to do with your benefits and nothing to do with your benefits. Unfortunately, the reality is, the truth depends upon who you talk to. More importantly, the truth, also, falls on who you believe. Will your benefits continue? I am fairly confident that they will. Don’t freak out over the political grandstanding. In the end, the machine will keep rolling but any time you know the political pundits have to take a few jabs along the way.



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